⚡ GEX Simulator + Live Strategy101 — v3.9

Two modes, two meanings. In LIVE the plotted path and the “observed” tiles are real: actual prices sampled from your snapshot, and what they actually did. In SIMULATED the path is invented. Monte Carlo is a forward model in both modes and is never an observation - in LIVE it is simply anchored at the last observed price.
The live price ceiling. With gex_price_relay.py running, the page reads gex_live_price.csv at roughly 30-second resolution; without it, the ceiling is source_spot in the 15-minute snapshot. Either way the number is the ETF’s last trade scaled by the proxy ratio, never a futures tick, so it will not match your NinjaTrader chart exactly. Use manual entry to record an actual chart price. The panel above always names which source produced the current reading and how old it is.
What the simulation is. A stochastic toy: mean-reversion toward the pivot, plus a gamma term that pins under positive GEX and amplifies under negative GEX, plus Gaussian noise. The levels are real — read from your collector's snapshot. The price path is invented. Monte Carlo percentages describe this model's behavior, not the market's.
“Close > spot” is simply the share of paths finishing above the start price — a property of where spot sits relative to the pivot, not a win rate or an edge.
The implied hedge tile. It reads the price change over the last five minutes, not the position relative to the pivot. Under negative GEX a hedging dealer trades with the move (buying a rise, selling a fall); under positive GEX, against it. This is what the calls-minus-puts convention implies a delta-hedger would have to do - not observed dealer activity, and not a signal.
Inherited caveats. Levels are an OI-gamma proxy under a calls-minus-puts assumption, not observed dealer inventory. Contracts whose implied vol could not be solved were priced at a flat 0.40 — the share is shown above. Not a forecast, not advice.